If nukes are fired, it won't be just N Korea versus US and South Korea, most definitely. It will drag everyone into the melee by sheer principle. Nukes are one of the greatest political taboos.
Actually, if things escalate past a certain point I'd be pretty afraid of N Korea deploying nukes, since they quite clearly don't give a fuck. So right now it's a balancing act: on the one hand everyone outside Korea prefers it if the detente between North and south can be maintained... but the minute that things look like they'll take a turn for the worse an knowing that the N korean leadership is bugfuck crazy they need to be in a position to swiftly lay the smackdown before the north inevitably decide to fire nukes.
PS. If you can, try your hand at giving some of the others a bit of feedback. If you already have, thanks, can you do some more?
(12-20-2010, 08:57 AM)billy Wrote: i think the us will take part on it's own if others don't join in. japan would probably help though they don't have much of a military force as such. (they're hoping to enlarge it's navel fleet of subs from all accounts. ) but i do think it would help.
Over a million finely tuned Asians against the US and whoever's army would be a formidable force, I think the advantage would lie in the home side, nukes would be a no no as nuking North Korea would in effect be nuking the South and China so the US would just get it back at them, that would in effect be nuking Canada so the UK would nuke China and stuff would just get silly so it would likely be a traditional war should there be a war.
China is the only country in the world to operate a "no nuking first" policy. I highly doubt they would nuke here and there without any consideration.
I don't think NK would ever nuke the USA, but I wouldn't put anything past them. The UK would definitly not nuke China as that would just be disadvantageous and silly.
I think NK is the only country stupid and crazy enough to use nukes. The others would rather a swift attack (either North or Southwards) that would fix the problem with minimal damage. No-one wants yet another drain on resources.
(12-20-2010, 08:57 AM)billy Wrote: i think the us will take part on it's own if others don't join in. japan would probably help though they don't have much of a military force as such. (they're hoping to enlarge it's navel fleet of subs from all accounts. ) but i do think it would help.
Over a million finely tuned Asians against the US and whoever's army would be a formidable force, I think the advantage would lie in the home side, nukes would be a no no as nuking North Korea would in effect be nuking the South and China so the US would just get it back at them, that would in effect be nuking Canada so the UK would nuke China and stuff would just get silly so it would likely be a traditional war should there be a war.
China is the only country in the world to operate a "no nuking first" policy. I highly doubt they would nuke here and there without any consideration.
I don't think NK would ever nuke the USA, but I wouldn't put anything past them. The UK would definitly not nuke China as that would just be disadvantageous and silly.
I think NK is the only country stupid and crazy enough to use nukes. The others would rather a swift attack (either North or Southwards) that would fix the problem with minimal damage. No-one wants yet another drain on resources.
The UK has strict rules in deploying nukes also, the first is when they are fired at the UK or other realms or Commonwealth and the second is should a nation use chemical or biological weapons on any of HM Forces or subjects, it is a defensive deterrent.
NK couldn't realistically nuke the US as they lack the intercontinental ballistic missiles that only the UK/USA/France/Russia/China have, they could nuke the south though and that would nuke US forces based there and that in turn would get the US to nuke the north, thing with modern nukes is they are nothing like what was deployed on Japan in WW2, they are in the megaton minimal range and the area of devastation that would be caused by the US nuking the north would hit China either directly or indirectly just because of Korea's small size, it would be like nuking London would nuke France inadvertently, that's how the armageddon starts and the principle of indirect nuking is recognised in the "mad" resolutions between the nuclear states.
Quote:North Korea 'ready for sacred war' with the South
South Korean exercises on 23 December South Korea has been urged not to carry out the exercises
North Korea is ready for a "sacred war of justice" using the nuclear deterrent, its armed forces minister has said.
Kim Yong-chun said exercises conducted by South Korea near the border were a preparation for war with the North.
The drill is one of the largest in South Korea's history, involving tanks, helicopters and fighter planes.
Tension has been high since North Korea shelled the South's Yeonpyeong island last month, killing four South Koreans.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has promised immediate retaliation to any further Northern attack.
The South Korean army acknowledged that the drill was aimed to display its firepower.
Although the South has conducted 47 military drills this year, this is the largest winter live-fire exercise ever conducted on land.
'Military provocation'
The North earlier branded Seoul's exercises "warmongering" but until now had not threatened the South with any retaliation.
During a meeting in the North Korean capital, Mr Kim, quoted by Pyongyang's Korean Central News Agency, accused the South of preparing for a new Korean War.
"The South Korean puppet forces perpetrated such grave military provocation as renewing their shelling against the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] during their recent exercises for a war of aggression in the West Sea [Yellow Sea] of Korea," he said.
"This indicates that the enemy's scenario for aggression aimed at the start of another Korean War, has reached the phase of its implementation."
"The revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK are getting fully prepared to launch a sacred war of justice of Korean style based on the nuclear deterrent at anytime necessary to cope with the enemies' actions deliberately pushing the situation to the brink of a war," he added.
Both China and Russia have called on the South to defuse tensions and US officials too are privately expressing their concern about Seoul's new, more aggressive stance.
South Korea and the US had already been conducting large-scale military exercises, following the apparent torpedoing of a South Korean warship by the North on 26 March, which killed 46 south Korean sailors.
Efforts to redirect the Korean issue back to the negotiating table have been unsuccessful.
China and the North say it is time to return to the six-nation talks about North Korea's nuclear programmes.
But the US, South Korea and Japan have said they will not return to such talks, which have previously involved rewards for the North if it cuts back on nuclear development.
North Korea walked out of the six-party talks in April 2009 and expelled UN nuclear inspectors from the country.
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"There is no doubt that the verbal ante is being upped by both sides here at the moment.
I don't think we should read too much into it. It's the sort of thing we've heard from North Korea before. It's threatened to use its nuclear deterrent in the past.
But I think there will be people who worry that what's happening is that as each side lays down this conditional threat, a line is being drawn in the sand and it's tempting the other side to cross over it.
And the worry is that if you keep talking tough, both North and South Korea, eventually you may be forced to act on it." source
i think just the fact him diying will do that even if they don't go to war. i doubt his son could fill the power vacuum that will be left behind even if he's being given a head start and shown the ropes while dads alive. once kim dies the the [hawks] generals will be vying for supremacy, one or more of them will have aspirations of being the next leader.