09-01-2022, 10:33 PM
Just saw a news opinion that the real winner is Iran - flowing into Syria (replacing Russian troops withdrawn to Ukraine, putting them closer to their goal of having a border with Israel) as well as being an experienced middleman to evade sanctions. Also providing drones to Russia - is there a reason Islamic states punch above their weight in UAVs?
What we have, with Russia now, was once known as irredentism - trying to "unite" some former entity with its "unredeemed" lost territories. Best known example is pre-Garibaldi Italy. It can succeed, but requires powerful backers (France for Italy, Russia and Red China for Vietnam). Also weak opposition (Austria-Hungary and the Papal States against Italy) which, arguably, the West can provide but isn't yet. (FWIW Chinese desire to "reunite" with Taiwan is another example; its South China Sea claims are just goofy.)
Drilling down below that macro level, I doubt there's enough enthusiasm for "reunification" with Ukraine in Russia for this to work - there was certainly very little for the initial invasion or even the salami tactics in Crimea and Donbas. The question - short of nukes - is whether Russia is in the phase of bankruptcy that goes a little at a time, or all at once. So... a wretched time for some, for many, or for very many: no good outcomes, only better and worse.
What we have, with Russia now, was once known as irredentism - trying to "unite" some former entity with its "unredeemed" lost territories. Best known example is pre-Garibaldi Italy. It can succeed, but requires powerful backers (France for Italy, Russia and Red China for Vietnam). Also weak opposition (Austria-Hungary and the Papal States against Italy) which, arguably, the West can provide but isn't yet. (FWIW Chinese desire to "reunite" with Taiwan is another example; its South China Sea claims are just goofy.)
Drilling down below that macro level, I doubt there's enough enthusiasm for "reunification" with Ukraine in Russia for this to work - there was certainly very little for the initial invasion or even the salami tactics in Crimea and Donbas. The question - short of nukes - is whether Russia is in the phase of bankruptcy that goes a little at a time, or all at once. So... a wretched time for some, for many, or for very many: no good outcomes, only better and worse.
Non-practicing atheist