Russian exit
#1
Like many Western companies, the one that I work for has exited Putin's Russia.
The list grows longer and longer.
This will hurt the Russian middle class. They will not like working for Chinese SOEs and Russian oligarchs, with foreign deputations limited to Shanghai and Dubai.

Putin is ensuring that Russia reverts to the Soviet Union quite properly
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#2
(03-04-2022, 06:04 AM)busker Wrote:  Like many Western companies, the one that I work for has exited Putin's Russia.
The list grows longer and longer.
This will hurt the Russian middle class. They will not like working for Chinese SOEs and Russian oligarchs, with foreign deputations limited to Shanghai and Dubai.

Putin is ensuring that Russia reverts to the Soviet Union quite properly
I'm not an expert but I mostly agree with your assessment. But my take is that he is attempting it, not ensuring it. The hardliners already gave up more ground than they could ever retrieve. (both geographically and ideologically ) The scary part for me is that you have a handful of old KGB farts who have been outplayed for 40 years and don't have a heck of a lot left to lose.
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#3
The Soviet Union without the decent healthcare, education, and quite frankly culture the popular revolution ensured it had -- naked Russian imperialism.
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#4
(03-04-2022, 06:04 AM)busker Wrote:  Like many Western companies, the one that I work for has exited Putin's Russia.
The list grows longer and longer.
This will hurt the Russian middle class. They will not like working for Chinese SOEs and Russian oligarchs, with foreign deputations limited to Shanghai and Dubai.

Putin is ensuring that Russia reverts to the Soviet Union quite properly

Come on man there's people dying. Fuck the Russian middle class, what about the Ukrainian working class, what about almost 2 million refugees. I'm sick of people boiling this down to economics as well as viewing it like a computer game where people are talking about tactics and shit. There are people dying man.

Sorry but this post has really boiled my piss today
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#5
(03-08-2022, 12:37 AM)ambrosial revelation Wrote:  
(03-04-2022, 06:04 AM)busker Wrote:  Like many Western companies, the one that I work for has exited Putin's Russia.
The list grows longer and longer.
This will hurt the Russian middle class. They will not like working for Chinese SOEs and Russian oligarchs, with foreign deputations limited to Shanghai and Dubai.

Putin is ensuring that Russia reverts to the Soviet Union quite properly

Come on man there's people dying. Fuck the Russian middle class, what about the Ukrainian working class, what about almost 2 million refugees. I'm sick of people boiling this down to economics as well as viewing it like a computer game where people are talking about tactics and shit. There are people dying man.

Sorry but this post has really boiled my piss today

I think you missed the point of the post.
Which was that the Russian middle class will feel the pinch. As they rightfully deserve.
But the reality is that it sort of ends there. You can impoverish Russia to an extent, but thanks to their 6,000 nukes, they can flatten Ukraine tomorrow with conventional bombs and there's nothing the west can do about it.

Ukraine can either surrender, rebuild, and play the long game, or continue to resist and become another Afghanistan. 
Putin will not last forever, and the sanctions will start to bite some years down the road. Most likely, this will lead to a regime change within Russia. That works out best for everyone concerned.

Reverting to a cold war type 'them vs us' alignment is the right thing for the west to do under the circumstances. An additional complication is imposed by China, which the west must address post haste (cut down trade with China, and rebuild supply chains closer to home).
That also means massively ramping up birth rates and military spending in Europe and the UK.
Welcome to the future.

And yes, there are people dying. But Ukraine needs to surrender for that to stop. The only saving grace of Putin is that, unlike Hitler, his agenda is not to wipe out the Ukrainians.
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#6
(03-05-2022, 10:22 AM)RiverNotch Wrote:  The Soviet Union without the decent healthcare, education, and quite frankly culture the popular revolution ensured it had -- naked Russian imperialism.

this one
I'll be there in a minute.
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#7
Funny that this thread popped up.
Looks like Europe has been taken to the cleaners. In trying to show up Russia, they've scored a spectacular own goal.
America has benefited tremendously from the war, being essentially a petro state with a tech sector. The rouble is doing well, and Russia has found a strong ally in China.

The war will probably end with Russia retaining East Ukraine, declaring ceasefire, and repairing ties with a freezing Europe.
Then Trump or deSantis will come to power in the US in 2024, and there will be a historic rapproachment.
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#8
Just saw a news opinion that the real winner is Iran - flowing into Syria (replacing Russian troops withdrawn to Ukraine, putting them closer to their goal of having a border with Israel) as well as being an experienced middleman to evade sanctions.  Also providing drones to Russia - is there a reason Islamic states punch above their weight in UAVs?

What we have, with Russia now, was once known as irredentism - trying to "unite" some former entity with its "unredeemed" lost territories.  Best known example is pre-Garibaldi Italy.  It can succeed, but requires powerful backers (France for Italy, Russia and Red China for Vietnam).  Also weak opposition (Austria-Hungary and the Papal States against Italy) which, arguably, the West can provide but isn't yet.  (FWIW Chinese desire to "reunite" with Taiwan is another example; its South China Sea claims are just goofy.)

Drilling down below that macro level, I doubt there's enough enthusiasm for "reunification" with Ukraine in Russia for this to work - there was certainly very little for the initial invasion or even the salami tactics in Crimea and Donbas.  The question - short of nukes - is whether Russia is in the phase of bankruptcy that goes a little at a time, or all at once.  So... a wretched time for some, for many, or for very many:  no good outcomes, only better and worse.
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#9
I think it has more to do with Russia being desperate that it does with Iran having technical logical prowes in drones. Russia was also buying missiles from North Korea.

I don’t think it will be easy for Russia to make peace with Europe. I don’t think Ukraine will accept loosing eastern Ukraine. And I think the US will be glad to provide arms to Ukraine, even if DeSantis becomes president. Trump is done.
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#10
(03-04-2022, 06:04 AM)busker Wrote:  Putin is ensuring that Russia reverts...

Another 20 year debacle in the making for Russia, ensuring only death and destruction.

Paraphrasing Ephesians 6:12-
"...our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the powers of this dark world..."
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#11
(09-11-2022, 06:56 AM)Mark A Becker Wrote:  
(03-04-2022, 06:04 AM)busker Wrote:  Putin is ensuring that Russia reverts...

Another 20 year debacle in the making for Russia, ensuring only death and destruction.

Paraphrasing Ephesians 6:12-
"...our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the powers of this dark world..."

That’s what I had thought, but I’d expected the US to be less profiteering. It hasn’t, and in the process has ceded whatever advantage the war initially afforded.
The Russian economy has shrunk, but less than Europe’s.
With China as an ally, Russia doesn’t need the west. There’s nothing the west does that China can’t do as well, if not better. And the China - Russia combine is unbeatable.
Economically, most of the world excluding the “west” is with Russia. Ukraine is not their war, and Russia is not an existential threat to them.

There’s only one way this war ends - Ukraine devastated, Russia a bit weatherbeaten but managing, Europe economically hollowed out, and the US doing well.
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#12
9/12/22

Speaking to today's news - sometimes the good guys win.  The problem is deciding who they are (or were) - it's always easy to find bad guys with something to blame; determining who, on balance, is less bad is therefore subject to bias.

We'll see... maybe.
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